Click Here for Full Article

 

[Excerpts]

With the end of the 12 day war, the question of regime change in Iran remains central. There are many scenarios, highlighting different factors and views. Analysts contrast the sweeping 1979 revolution that deposed the Shah and brought the Islamic Republic to power with the failures of major protest movements to trigger a counter revolution. Pessimists predict that the regime will survive, continuing to impose its control over the lives of 90 million citizens, while attempting to rebuild the military and terror capabilities to attack Israel.

In the case of the Soviet Union, the erosion of legitimacy took place steadily during four years until the final collapse.

Alternative scenarios highlight the humiliation following the war in which the Israeli Air Force had complete freedom of action over all of Iran. As the scale of damage, in contrast to the regime’s propaganda, becomes apparent across the country, the challenges to the legitimacy of the leadership are likely to increase. This process could trigger a collapse from within, including defection by officials of the regime, and eventually, a loss of control.

To assess and analyze this scenario, it is useful to consider the collapse of the Soviet Union that began with the catastrophic accident at the nuclear reactor at Chernobyl in April 1986. The Kremlin leadership was already ossified at the time, much like its Iranian counterparts now. The explosion and its aftermath, including many deaths and large-scale radiation exposure, were clearly visible throughout the area and far beyond the borders of the USSR, but Moscow tried to cover-up the disaster to avoid embarrassment, like the response in Tehran.