[Opinion] Minimum requirements for a negotiated ceasefire with Iran
[Excerpts]
In some cases, this moment comes when one side is victorious and the other surrenders, as in the case of Japan in 1945, or when its leadership is destroyed, such as with Nazi Germany. But in recent history, total victory is increasingly rare, and most wars end through negotiated ceasefires when one or both societies are exhausted.
In the war between Iran and Israel, occupation is not a realistic option. The alternatives are either surrender or regime change in Tehran, with a new leadership that could quickly end the conflict, as happened in 1917 when Russia’s revolutionary government immediately withdrew its military from World War I.
The factors likely to bring surrender or regime change in Tehran are a combination of internal exhaustion and external pressure to end the war, primarily from the United States and President Donald Trump. (The United Nations and numerous European would-be mediators have no credibility or leverage over Iran or Israel.)