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At 7 AM IDT on June 24, 2025, and after 12 days of war, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, under the direction of US President Trump. If the ceasefire holds, the “battle damage assessment” (BDA) will start. Here are the key questions and issues to look for:

1) In Iran, the BDA will focus first on regime survival. Are popular opposition forces strong and organized enough to replace the fanatics that took power in 1979? Did Israeli strikes on internal repression centers open options for a wider revolt?

2) Regarding Iran’s conventional military including IRGC – the IDF killed a large segment of senior officers – the command structure is severely weakened, and training replacements will take time. Also, key assets were destroyed – air defense, antique mini-airforce, drone and missile production, etc. This leaves Iran even more vulnerable, and forces the regime to either divert massive funds to restoring at least parts of the conventional military, or abandoning these security dimensions.

3) Iran’s BDA must also determine the strategic assets that remain, and then decide on what can be salvaged, and with what priority and budget? There is a great deal of speculation on the location of the HEU (highly enriched uranium) that was produced for bomb making – it may be buried, all or in part, under the remains of Fordo, Natanz or another nuclear site. Even if the regime still possesses the HEU, did the facilities and engineers for making a weapon survive Israel’s precise strikes? Can they rebuild in less than 20 years, and at what cost?